Vectra Bank's forecast counters local good vibe

I walked into Vectra Bank Colorado's economic forecast breakfast Wednesday and quickly ran into the always optimistic Tim Jackson. President/CEO of the Colorado Automobile Dealers Association, Jackson bubbled about a 13.7 percent sales increase for his industry in November, and said he hoped that Colorado dealers would finish the year posting a full 14 percent gain for 2011.

Jackson then introduced me to Andy Rogers, general manager of the Ritz-Carlton Denver, who said December was the best month of the year for the downtown luxury hotel, and he agreed with Jackson's ebullience over how Colorado's economy seemed to be picking up.

Then I sat down to listen to Vectra's speakers for the day:

• Patty Silverstein, who delivered the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce's and Metro Denver Economic Development Corp.'s 2012 economic forecast;
• Mark Snead, vice president and economist at the Denver Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City; and,
• George Feiger, CEO of an investment firm in San Francisco, a past member of the Vectra Bank board of directors, and a frequent commentator on Bloomberg News, Fox Business News and in the Wall Street Journal.

Man, what a downer!

Silverstein told the crowd in the Seawall Ballroom at the Denver Center for Performing Arts that 2012 was a time for Colorado and metro Denver to "rebuild," but that the rebuilding will be "slow" because consumers are still being frugal; jobs will grow only about 1.1 percent both nationally and locally, leaving 123,000 people in metro Denver still looking desperately for work; "wages have been growing relatively slowly" in the region; and home prices may get boosted 3 percent at most during the year.

Snead, of the Denver office of the Fed, told the 400 business people: "It could be worse, it could be a lot worse. You could be in Greece."

And then he pointed out that Greece and the United States "have just about the same amount of debt."

The U.S., of course, is better equipped to handle that debt, Snead said. It is much bigger, and most of its population isn't drinking ouzo out on the beach. But still the comparison can be made; and, in general, Snead kept repeating, the U.S. and world economies during 2012 will mostly be "bottoming, not accelerating."

And then, with coffee in the room growing cold, Feiger took the lectern and told everybody the euro zone would definitely fail before it got better; China is actually in worse shape than its Communist leaders will ever let on; at least the U.S. is "the least bad place to be" in the world today; and nothing about what he was telling all the business leaders, who are generally paid to be optimistic about the outlooks for their firms, was funny.

"It's very far from funny," Feiger added.

No one was laughing as everybody headed for the doors.

4 bankers ready to lend

Dana Bondy, senior vice president for business banking at Colorado State Bank and Trust, likes to make lists, and so he made one during a panel discussion Wednesday on small business access to capital. Not a "top" 10, and in no particular order, here is his list:

1. Communicate with your lenders, sharing both good and bad news about your business.
2. Get behind your results, to take credit for your successes, and accountability for your losses.
3. Ask a lot of questions of your banker or lender.
4. Listen to your lender's answers to those questions. He or she provides an honest perspective on the risk and potential presented by your business proposition.
5. Expect great partners in your lenders. Expect them to return your calls, and be quick to return theirs.
6. Get specific when asking for money.
7. Work with the decision-maker on your loan.
8. Connect to business-finance resources like SCORE, a group of retired execs who do business counseling, or SBA or your local Small Business Development Center, all of which give free advice.
9. Connect with your peers. Many small business owners have already experienced the problems you may be facing in operating your business. Learn from their experience.
10. Shop your loan request around until you find the lender who wants to loan you money; any banker's advice about your business proposal, even if he or she turns down the loan, is valuable to you as a business operator.

Bondy was one of four bankers who spoke at a forum on access to capital hosted Wednesday by U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette. Bondy was joined on the panel by Mark Abell, of Vectra Bank Colorado; Mary Rogers; of JPMorgan Chase, who said she was the national spokeswoman for Chase on small business; Alan Ramirez, senior commerical loan officer at the Colorado Enterprise Fund; and Greg Lopez, Colorado district director of the Small Business Administration.

The bankers' collectively suggested a willingness to lend to business owners who did their homework and presented viable proposals, but they also admitted their institutions might be among the nine of ten who rejects a loan proposal before one institution accepts it from a specific business owner.

That was the point of Bondy's 10th item on his list. Just because a banker doesn't review your loan proposal favorably doesn't mean he or she can't teach you something about the proposal while reviewing it. Take all the advice you can get and move on to the next banker.

Access to capital is a traditional complaint of small business owners, and Rogers from Morgan Chase admitted credit got very tight during the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

But she said her bank's loan window didn't close altogether; it lent $8 billion in business loans during 2009 and has been increasing that number by multiples of billions ever since, looking forward to another increase in 2012.

Abell of Vectra Bank said Vectra didn't change their lending policies throughout the crisis years, and he gave examples of borrowers who backed up their proposals with good information and obtained loans even during the hard times. Ramirez explained the Colorado Enterprise Fund's goal is to lend to companies that cannot obtain capital elsewhere. He said the fund loaned $3.1 million in 2011, averaging $30,000 a loan.

SBA district director Greg Lopez said it was a moral obligation for the people on the panels to help small businesses succeed. He said SBA in Colorado guaranteed 1,425 loans with a value of $619 million last year.

He also said SBA is about to roll out a program that will partially guarantee loans based on contracts the borrower holds with customers. Contracts, or the promise of future revenue, traditionally have not been considered collateral, preventing many firms from obtaining the capital they need.